A provenance ladder ranks the data on a football match page by where each number came from, from the referee's official record at the top to modelled metrics at the bottom. This listicle takes the six layers in turn, using a RubiScore match page as the example, and says how far to trust each one.
Every block on a page at https://rubiscore.com has an author, even when none is named: a referee, a competition, a data operator, a camera system or a model. The ladder is a reading aid, not a quality score: settled does not mean detailed, and derived does not mean wrong. Separate explainers cover why live numbers move, how finished matches are amended, tracking versus event data, xG differences and player ratings. This one asks the earlier question: which layer is a number from?
A finished-match page on RubiScore, viewed in October 2026, shows a full-time and half-time score, a timeline of goals, cards and substitutions, line-ups, team statistics, venue details and, where available, the referee. It also carries a top-rated player with a mark out of ten, a per-minute momentum chart and an xG field. Each block belongs to a layer:
Produced by: the referee and the competition. Under Law 5 of the Laws of the Game (2026/27 edition), the referee keeps a record of the match and gives the appropriate authorities a match report covering disciplinary action and other incidents. Under Law 3, substitutes must be named to the referee before kick-off.
Captures and misses: score, scorers, cards, substitutions and line-ups. It records outcomes, not quality, so it holds no passing, pressing or movement detail.
How it settles: at the whistle. Law 5 says the referee's decisions on facts connected with play, including whether a goal is scored and the result of the match, are final. What can stay open is attribution, covered under layer 3.
Check on the page: goals in the timeline should add up to the score. Hypothetically, a page showing 3-1 with only three goals listed has an incomplete timeline or a wrong score, and the competition's own record settles which. RubiScore labels predicted line-ups and states that confirmed line-ups replace them once announced.
Produced by: league, federation and confederation regulations, applied by the organiser and its disciplinary bodies. Law 10 leaves drawn ties to competition rules, permitting only away goals, extra time and penalties, and a shoot-out is not part of the match.
Captures and misses: what a result is worth, never what happened. Two published examples show how much it varies:
Note the cross-over: cards from layer 1 can decide a layer 2 ranking. Rules also create awarded results: in May 2026 UEFA's disciplinary body declared a European Under-19 Championship match forfeited, with the federation responsible deemed to have lost 3-0.
How it settles: rules are fixed before the season, but sanctions arrive during it. An independent commission's ten-point deduction for Everton was cut to six by an appeal board in February 2024, and the Premier League table carried a footnote explaining it.
Check on the page: if points do not match wins and draws, look for a footnote. Confirm which competition's tie-break applies, and keep shoot-outs apart from the match score.
Produced by: data providers. Event data logs on-ball actions such as passes, shots, tackles and duels, each with a player, a time, a pitch location and an outcome. Traditionally, trained operators tag them live.
Captures and misses: on-ball actions only; off-ball movement is invisible. Some tags need judgement. One major supplier's public glossary defines a "big chance" as a situation where a player "should reasonably be expected to score". No Law defines labels such as "dangerous attacks", so definitions differ by provider.
How it settles: live tags are provisional, but collection can be consistent. A peer-reviewed 2013 study of Opta's live collection system had two groups of experienced operators code one Spanish league match independently: agreement on team events was very good (kappa 0.92 and 0.94), with event times 0.06 seconds apart on average. One match and one supplier is a small sample. Authority also overrides tags: the Premier League says its official data partner normally identifies the scorer quickly, but a three-person Goal Accreditation Panel reviews any goal where the scorer is open to debate.
Check on the page: compare team totals with the timeline and player figures. Coverage depth varies by competition: some RubiScore pages show a full statistics panel, while others show a dash or a note that line-ups are not available.
Produced by: optical camera systems in stadiums or wearable sensors, sampling the position of every player and the ball many times a second. FIFA's Quality Programme for Electronic Performance and Tracking Systems added performance tests for optical and wearable devices in 2019, with public test reports for tested providers.
Captures and misses: distance, speed, shape and off-ball movement, but not what a player intended. A 2020 PLOS ONE study compared two generations of TRACAB's optical system with a motion-capture reference, using 20 players in a stadium. Position error was 0.08 to 0.09 metres (RMSE), and the authors judged both valid in the settings tested as long as players are tracked correctly.
How it settles: positions are measured rather than judged, but distance and shape figures are processed outputs. The same study excluded frames where players were obviously not tracked, so gaps exist.
Check on the page: public pages seldom expose raw coordinates. If a page lists distance or sprint figures, look for a named measurement source and treat the figures as unverified without one.
Produced by: certified or approved systems used by match officials. Law 5 lets competitions use them, and each answers a narrow question:
Captures and misses: yes-or-no questions only. The Premier League says its offside system improves speed, efficiency and consistency rather than accuracy, and judgements such as interference stay with officials.
How it settles: within seconds, then it becomes layer 1 once the referee confirms the decision.
Check on the page: a disallowed goal should appear in the timeline without changing the score. You see the consequence, not the measurement; FIFA says it is the sole owner of the tracking and ball data its offside system collects.
Produced by: each provider's own model. xG, player ratings and win probability are computed from lower layers, mainly event data, and no Law or regulation defines them.
Captures and misses: a summary of chance quality, involvement or likelihood under one method. Inputs, weights and training data are choices, and an error in a lower layer, such as a mislocated shot, flows into the result. Earlier explainers cover why xG differs and how ratings are built; the point here is that these are the most provider-specific numbers on a page.
How it settles: live values move with the match and can be recalculated when inputs are corrected.
Check on the page: compare a rating, momentum chart or xG figure only with others from the same source, and read it beside the events beneath. RubiScore shows a dash in its xG field where no figure exists, the right display for a modelled figure that is unavailable.
The higher up the ladder, the more settled a number is; the more derived it is, the more it depends on one provider's choices. Layer 5 is the exception to read carefully: it is formally tested and certified, yet it answers only a handful of questions, so it sits in the middle.
Before quoting any number, ask four questions. Who produced it? Under which rule or definition? What could still change it? Does the source explain its method? A match page alone cannot reveal which supplier or method sits behind a block, so check the platform's About and FAQ pages. Naming the layer behind each block takes seconds, and it turns a wall of numbers into a ranked set of claims.